Daily Digits for March 3, 2014

The world just got a lot more interesting (translation:  scary).  While I’m no geopolitical expert, I can tell you war translates to uncertainty.  In this market, the kind of uncertainty we’re talking about isn’t “will the Fed slow it’s taper.”  It’s more like “will the US get drawn into this mess militarily, and what are the economic repercussions of these actions?”  Based on the futures markets it looks like we’re in for a bumpy ride as diplomacy gets tested.  The overall market trend continues to look strong, with a low 1900 target for the S&P500.  However, there’s been a bunch of resistance around 1850 or so.   Even though last Friday’s close finally pushed through this high (at month end, no less), it’s not out of the question to see the markets pull-back or drift sideways do to the systemic risks now present in both Russia, Ukraine, and the Middle East.

Futures today say the market is going to be off about 1%.  Support looks strong in the low 1800’s, but it’s anybody’s guess as to what the full impact of geopolitical actions may have.  All I know is that the markets, in the short term, looked over-bought.  The market has been do for a little pull-back either way.  The Ukraine/Russia standoff is a good reason to take a breather.  We’ll see if this is just the markets digesting some info on the way higher or if something more sinister lies in wait…

Daily Digits

Daily Digits for 3-3-14

Weekly Estimated Range

Weekly Estimated Range 3-3-14

 

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