Hurry Up and Wait

So we wait… until the Fed goes ahead and raises interest rates again.

The news cycle will be pushing trade war talks or currency shifts or commodity pricing.  But the story is still the Fed.  Do we have enough news — globally — to keep the Fed from hiking rates again?  Probably not…  the low unemployment number is getting hard to ignore.

Don’t take your eye off the ball though.  The story is about the cost of capital.  The narrative may begin to shift as investors ask when the bull market ends, but there’s probably some delay in that process.  For now, M&A activity and consolidation is should keep happening until rates rise to the point it looks less attractive.  The rest of the noise in this market is mostly relevant because folks are trying to figure out how Fed policy will evolve and what it will mean.  But the Fed is still the elephant in the room.

For the week, look for a sideways market with the SPX hanging out between about 1700 and 1750 or so.  Futures look to be opening positive, but the move still appears measured.  For traders out there, looks like more volatility to enjoy.  For investors, looks like more hurry up and wait…


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