While it is difficult to forecast a breakout in stocks in advance, the S&P500 is less than one percent from closing above its all-time highs. That can easily be taken out in a single day. The question is which day?
Given the way data will be released this week — with the majority of market movers coming on Wednesday (with the release of FOMC minutes) or later, look for a trading range up until that point. From Wednesday on, volatility may climb, but the probability of a close above the 2018 highs is climbing (despite mixed bag of global economic data).
The key thing to watch will be a weekly close above the January highs for the S&P500 — moreso than the DJIA or the NASDAQ (as they are either too concentrated in numbers or industries respectively). A weekly close at all-time highs would be a strong signal the SPX is headed to the 3000 mark in the coming weeks.
There are a few simple things to keep in mind why this is happening:
- Despite election discussions already starting, they’re a ways off yet
- The FED continues to operate with a lot of transparency
- Corporate profits remain strong and growing overall
- Interest rates remain low
- Inflation remains relatively contained
- Despite historically low unemployment rates, wage inflation has not gone bananas
- Real estate has cooled slightly (which is probably okay as things were getting bubble-ish in many markets)
- AND perhaps most important, TINA (There Is still No Alternative) that looks like a better place to get a return on your investment besides the stock market.
Any of these things starts to change and we can talk. Until then, it looks like the market will keep doing what it’s doing.
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