Waiting on Friday

Either the government stays open or it doesn’t. Markets will be keeping an eye on this. Not that the markets care about the closure all that much, but it’s a sign of whether or not Washington is going to be a headwind or tailwind.

Odds are we’ll see another shutdown. Markets may simply move in a sideways pattern until this gets resolved. As of this morning, futures are pointing to a slightly higher opening.

The VIX has dropped a bunch too, indicating the markets are not too worried about the well-forecasted shutdown. It appears the biggest issues on the markets remain a) the Fed, and b) really it’s still the Fed. The news outlets would have you believe it’s Chinese trade or jobs or something. But the Fed is the biggie. The rest of that is just data for how the Fed may respond.

Look for a sideways week going into a highly probable (read as about 95%) government shut-down 2.0. Once the rhetoric starts, we’ll see what happens from there.

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