After a 7-day win streak the SPX may be bumping into some short-term resistance. We’re now spitting distance from SPX 2900, but the index is out ahead of most of its metrics at this point.
In fact, the SPX is more than 1.5 standard deviations above its 21-trading-day average. It’s above the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages- and it’s above it’s 21-day linear regression.
In most of the traditional ways you’d analyze this market, it’s over-bought at this point. That makes for the high potential of short-term profit taking from traders and professional money managers.
The next thing to watch for on the horizon is Q2-earnings season. We’re running right into the throws of that now, with Alcoa reporting on April 17th. Those numbers should have a significant sway over the momentum of the SPX.
For the week, we may give a little back, with 2870’s to as low as 2830 being on the radar depending on the news cycle (the latter number being fairly extreme for a one-week move).
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