Trade Winds Improving

Last week markets got a pop on ‘less bad’ trade news as China indicated a partial trade agreement may be on the table. This could mean additional planned tariffs would be suspended.

Markets viewed this as a positive and finished last week with a strong push higher.

While the news is good, the technical set-up for this week may have a quick down-draft to fill in a price gap for the SPX. There is technical support around 2930 or so — right at the 100-day moving average (the 50-dma is only 5 points higher).

Interestingly enough, the market is neither over-bought nor over-sold. It’s pretty much right in the middle of its 21-day trading range. So positive news from here could lead to a push higher (especially if the small price gap created last Friday gets filled quickly this week).

This is the first technical sign that the markets could be setting up for a break-out to the up side in a while. There is still a chance the sideways pattern could simply persist, but the price reversal last week was a good sign the 2900 is significant support for the SPX.

For this week, look for a quick dip down, followed by a potential surge to the up-side. Breaching 3000 on the SPX is possible this week, although it is unlikely the all-time highs will be reached. It would take a more definitive deal with China to spark that kind of move.

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