I realize this is typically where folks come to get a sense of the numbers. This is no easy task in the middle of a panic.
As of Monday morning futures are at circuit breakers and most stocks look poised for bloodletting.
Rather than discuss that we’re going down, the Fed took rates to basically zero, and blah blah blah… what can we lean on for guidance?
Well, the database is at just over 26% long… it. has. cratered.
The marco’s are still in, but the market macro has gone to a warning/wait signal. Credit, while still long, has shown significant declines as well. The economic indicator is still waiting on new data but will likely slide as well.
At this point, stocks are going lower. The question is how much lower.
It’s really not possible to divine… but since that’s what folks come here for, here’s my best stab:
First level support this week is at 2600… that will fail almost instantly. Next we’ll check last week’s lows at 2478… that will likely fail as well. So then what?
2407. That’s a biggie. That’s the low of the Q4-2018 pull-back. But the bottom of the price move that quarter was 2351.10.
If we fall below that, it’s anyone’s guess. Likely 2100/2000 would be the stopping point. If we hit 2000 it’s a full-blown 40% correction. This is probably over-done. But then again, we don’t have a roadmap for pandemics and quarantine.
Rather than me guess a bunch, I’ll just commit to updating this blog more frequently as I see meaningful data. Also, jump on our forum call this week. If you want an invite, just let us know. It’s normally for our subscribers, but this week, if you email me, I’ll get you on the list. firstname.lastname@example.org – the call is Thursday at 1pm central, 11am pacific.
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