Recession is Probably Here

I realize this is typically where folks come to get a sense of the numbers. This is no easy task in the middle of a panic.

As of Monday morning futures are at circuit breakers and most stocks look poised for bloodletting.

Rather than discuss that we’re going down, the Fed took rates to basically zero, and blah blah blah… what can we lean on for guidance?

Well, the database is at just over 26% long… it. has. cratered.

The marco’s are still in, but the market macro has gone to a warning/wait signal. Credit, while still long, has shown significant declines as well. The economic indicator is still waiting on new data but will likely slide as well.

At this point, stocks are going lower. The question is how much lower.

It’s really not possible to divine… but since that’s what folks come here for, here’s my best stab:

First level support this week is at 2600… that will fail almost instantly. Next we’ll check last week’s lows at 2478… that will likely fail as well. So then what?

2407. That’s a biggie. That’s the low of the Q4-2018 pull-back. But the bottom of the price move that quarter was 2351.10.

If we fall below that, it’s anyone’s guess. Likely 2100/2000 would be the stopping point. If we hit 2000 it’s a full-blown 40% correction. This is probably over-done. But then again, we don’t have a roadmap for pandemics and quarantine.

Rather than me guess a bunch, I’ll just commit to updating this blog more frequently as I see meaningful data. Also, jump on our forum call this week. If you want an invite, just let us know. It’s normally for our subscribers, but this week, if you email me, I’ll get you on the list. – the call is Thursday at 1pm central, 11am pacific.


Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.