I Don’t Get It, But That Doesn’t Matter

I’ll admit it: this market baffles me sometimes. Here we in the midst of an economic shut-down — unemployment has exploded; bankruptcies are popping up all over the place; profits are in the tank — yet this market charges higher.

Even the BigFoot Database has shown improvement as the number of total long positions has climbed over 33%. That’s up 50% from a week ago. So clearly there’s some momentum under this thing.

The question is, is the action healthy? Not if we look at earnings, which, according to JP Morgan are down over 47% on average for companies reporting.

It’s fine… markets are forward looking… the economy is about to turn back on and thing will go back to normal.

Yeah, right…

The economy might turn back on, but social distancing policies have become a real thing. And large parts of the economy will not be the same… especially restaurants and entertainment.

Also, markets failed to render a new intra-day high last week. Could be nothing — just trader activity — Or… could mean we’re running out of buyers and this is the price level for a while.

As discussed in prior blogs, we’re at a resistance point technically. Markets have drifted sideways for the last few weeks as the 2950-ish range but are yet to close above or ‘beak out’ from this level.

If this market were to follow a more typical pattern from here, we’d expect a pull back to at least 2800 or so (and more likely 2650ish). I use these vague levels because… frankly… this market is making up new rules as we go, fueled by mind-boggling Federal Reserve intervention and Government stimulus.

That rocket fuel has done a solid job stabilizing the bond markets and keeping hope in the economy. But… it’s been a while. And rocket fuel burns off. The Fed can keep buying bonds, but what happens next? How long can we pay people not to work?

Of course, these are rhetorical questions. But they do have a bearing on the stock market. For a season now, these markets have moved based on how the fight against Covid-19 has been going. That’s shifting though… reality is going to have to creep into this thing. And the big unknown is whether or not all this new debt of Uncle Sam’s will have any unintended consequences.

Meanwhile, we will deal with our moment-to-moment day-by-day analysis. And futures say the market should head lower… of course, it looked like they said this last week as well. What we ended up with is more of a sideways pattern.

The 200-day moving average has declined to close to 3000. If this market manages to close above this area by month end we could actually see a macro re-purchase signal. But this is a long ways off, and 3000 is currently much more of a resistance level than a support level.

Pricing patterns suggest a sideways-to-negative bias this week, with 2950 continuing as resistance, and 2873 as support. But like I said earlier, I don’t get it… this market has done with it sometimes does: prove the greatest possible number of people wrong at any given time.

My take – I still think this thing is over-baked and we’re trading on hope. And I think we can (and probably will) move lower in this trend. What I hear from a lot of folks is desperation – as if they missed the bottom and somehow missed their chance on this thing.

Maybe… But typically, right about the time you throw in the towel is when the market knows. At some point, data will matter again… then again, I don’t get this market (but that doesn’t matter)…


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