Looking Past the Election

A look under the hood will show the BigFoot Database beginning to re-purchase into declining volatility and a possible break-out to the upside for the S&P 500.

Recall one of the big drivers of the BigFoot Algos is the presence of short-term volatility. When short-term volatility declines, it’s often a sign that markets are aligning for a positive advance.

Sure, the database is still pretty beat up, with approximately 46% of tracked symbols having buy signals. Still, this is up from the prior week’s 42% levels, showing signs the market is beginning to re-group at these levels in preparation for another move higher. It is the change in direction that raises the eyebrow…

How — or why — would this happen? Likely the markets are already looking past the election.

The headlines will suggest the market is banking on another round of stimulus from Washington. There’s also anticipation (or at least reporting) of a ‘blue wave’ ushering in both regime change in the white house and the Senate. If so, a round of government spending and higher corporate taxes is likely.

But it’s more complex than that. The markets aren’t tracking the headlines per se. In fact, headlines seem more inclined to sell an outcome than report the news these days. But the markets, ever single-mindedly seeking profits, are seeing the bigger picture for what it is: stimulus regardless of who is in the white house. So this is less a political prediction than a reality check. The Fed has suggested stimulus is required to keep the ship from capsizing. Now Washington is just jockeying for political points. If the market is correct, stimulus is a forgone conclusion. Now we’re arguing over when and how much.

So markets are less concerned in the short-term about Trump or Biden. They want to know when the money starts falling from the sky.

This doesn’t mean the markets don’t care who wins the election. It just means the markets aren’t looking out that far right now. “Free” money is a pretty powerful incentive to shorten time horizons. Longer-term the pace of growth for the markets will absolutely be impacted by one regime over another… but that requires too much thinking right now. We want to know where the next round of lighter fluid is coming from.

The technical picture suggests a break-out to all-time highs is possible this week. Futures are already indicating a higher open. And last week’s move in the SPX — while negative for the week — did little more damage than to allow some consolidation after the previous week’s break-out.

This isn’t to suggest a break-out to the upside is guaranteed this week. It’s simply to suggest that is what the pattern is indicating .

When looking at the numbers, the S&P 500 is now on the hunt to take out previous highs and extend toward the 3704 level. It seems unlikely to hit these levels this week – but perhaps in the next two weeks.

On the downside, look for 3440 or so for support. A breakdown below the lows of last week would signal a sideways move and would take the 3704 number off the table probably until after the election results are settled.

S&P 500 projections for the week of October 19, 2020

The wild thing about this market is it seems to have largely priced in the effects of Covid. It has more or less recoved its losses and moved back into the price channel established in 2019. We’ll see how the election plays out as to whether or not that longer-term pricing trajectory remains valid…

Updated 2020 Projections.
Note the S&P 500 has moved back into the original price trend channel.

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