A Simple Look at the Numbers

Last week saw stocks reverse and climb in the latter half of the week.

Chasing down the why is an odd game these days. Is the Chinese economy going to collapse? Price of oil to climb? Supply chains wrecked? US debt default?

Your guess is as good as mine. Regardless, there seems to be a wall of worry. And folks seem to continue to climb it.

With the markets now eyeing their all-time highs again, what are the simple numbers for the week?

Monday futures indicate a lower open for the indexes. The first level of solid support for the SPX looks like 50dma at 4437. Below that, more significant support should be at 4395 (which may as well be 4400, because this market has been bouncing around between the ‘big fat round numbers’ a bunch anyway).

Resistance is at 4475. And again, it’s one of those suspiciously round numbers. But this was, in fact, the actual intra-day high on Friday. And it appears to be the resistance area to watch as last week’s trading range finished in the over-sold area.

The question of whether or not a rally will close out 2021 is still up in the air. The longer-term projections were actually a bit lower than where the markets currently sit. However, those projections were built on old data.

As of right now, the markets seem to have a supportive bid to them. However, there’s yet to be ‘escape velocity.’ This week appears likely to continue sideways in the 4400 range for now.

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