Bottom Not Confirmed

Last week had a potential recovery set-up early on. Aaaaaand… no. Still down for the week. A lot.

The only real up-side was the finish on Friday, where the SPX crossed below the bear market threshold intra-day and reversed course to finish higher.

Bottom line, while this market is showing signs of reaching a bottom, it’s not confirmed (and, in reality, nothing is ever ‘confirmed,’ That’s just a nice way of saying a pattern ‘suggests’ a change has occurred.)

This week, keep an eye on the 3850’s, then 3800 if that level is breached. There’s not much support in this area. And let’s face it, sentiment is rough. If a push down starts, it could quickly devolve into another rush for the door as sellers bail.

Still, there are signs this is close to done. On the fundamental side of things, PE ratios are looking better. China suggests lockdowns are easing. The job market remains strong. And, up to this point, the markets have always recovered from events like this. So, there’s good reason to believe it will happen again.

Hang in there. These are not fun days to ride through the market volatility. But, as they say, the days are long and the years are short. This too shall pass.

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