Here Comes Earnings Season

The stage is set for an exciting earnings season. Guidance is one thing, but this is where the rubber to meet the road. Can earnings actually grow from here? Or have we seen peak earnings growth for this economic cycle? It may not matter… yet. The Fed has all but assured markets a rate cut […]

Just Right… for Indexes

Don’t look now but markets are near all-time highs (at least for the major indexes). Last week’s close was the highest (weekly) in history for the S&P500. Discount the fact it was a holiday-shortened week, but this is still a strong signal. Perhaps most noteworthy was the jobs report. With a big up-side surprise, this […]

Escape Velocity

Equity markets enjoyed a strong 1-week recovery but seem to have more-or-less stalled out after last week. The question is, can momentum break out above these levels, or will a more ominous ‘triple top’ signal a re-test of the 2600 level (or lower) for the S&P500? The BigFoot Economic Macro Indicator continues to slowly erode. […]

Uncertainty is the New Certainty

Markets found some footing last week after a multi-week slide. However, futures are pointing to a drop yet again, presumably because of the most recent Trump Tweet regarding Iran. So flip a coin. The SPX found a decent amount of support at the 2800 level. There also appears to be a decent amount of resistance […]

The Tariff Tantrum

Markets are bracing for a drop after the weekend announcement that tariffs on Chinese goods are not only back on the table but bigger than before. What this translates to for the markets is uncertainty. For the past couple of months the China trade negotiations were largely an after-thought. This brings things back to the […]

This Should Be It

The moment everyone’s been waiting for should finally be here: SPX closing at all-time highs. The likelihood we see this at some point this week is extremely high (like 80% or more). The question is, will we close above this level for the week? While the are chinks in the economic armor, the momentum in […]

Thin Air

The SPX is in a difficult spot. On the one hand, momentum in the smaller-cap stocks looks questionable; prices are above monthly trend; and earnings season has many concerned growth may be waning. On the other hand, the prior intra-day high of just over 2940 is within striking distance. So which way does the market […]

Technical Headwinds for SPX this Week

After a 7-day win streak the SPX may be bumping into some short-term resistance. We’re now spitting distance from SPX 2900, but the index is out ahead of most of its metrics at this point. In fact, the SPX is more than 1.5 standard deviations above its 21-trading-day average. It’s above the 50, 100, and […]

No Man’s Land

If you’re looking for some kind of directional indication from the short-term, the markets aren’t hearing it. Since the Christmas Eve lows of last year, this market has been on a tear… until the last two weeks or so. Now it seems escape velocity is waning. Each time the SPX hits 2800 momentum seems to […]