How High from Here?

Last week managed to finish at all-time highs for the SPX. The question now is how high can we go? While there is no pre-defined limit, our original 2019 projections had 3100 as a likely target. Given current momentum, the SPX may exceed this level either this week or next. The question will then shift […]

All-Timers and Pull-Backs

This is one of those deals where the headline is probably all you need. Look for the SPX to break out all time highs, then probable a quick trader’s pull-back to re-test about 3000 or so before a end-of-year move to push 3100. How’s that for short and sweet? IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION Please remember that […]

A Little Over-Sold

Markets still appear slightly oversold, even with a big rebound on Thursday and Friday last week. In fact, all three of the major indexes (DJIA, SPX, NASDAQ) have recovered their buy signals. This is a sign that volatility is again on the decline as markets seek to find traction. Most of the underlying technical data […]

Ready Q4

End of quarter rebalancing may generate some volatility today. Otherwise, markets look like they are staged to continue their sideways oscillation. There is little technically to suggest there is a breakout in either direction. Instead, it seems the all-time highs of the SPX remain resistance, and the 100-day moving average remains as support. The big-picture […]

Oil Grabs the Headlines

Markets are set to open lower with oil spiking higher. This is after Saudi Arabia had two oil facilities attacked by drones over the weekend. The US blames Iran. Iran claims innocence. Name calling ensues, and things quickly escalated to saber rattling. So, long story short, oil prices are spiking higher as some of Saudi […]

Keep Your Eyes On The Fed

The SPX may be in a sideways pattern, but the short-term momentum has shifted to the positive. Now all the analysts come out of the woodwork to try and explain why. Here’s the simple thing to do: Watch the Fed. If the news cycle isn’t going to change what they’re doing, odds are, the market […]

Reply Hazy, But Not Really

Let’s just throw something out there: a recession is on the horizon. That’s not particularly ground-breaking. And it’s not particularly useful. But it is particularly newsworthy. The fact of the matter is, all expansions eventually end in recession. So, unless the expansion continues, a recession is on the horizon. The question is not if there […]

Were Bears Just Invited to Dinner?

Let’s cut through the fluff and get right to the meat and potatoes of the market – did last week’s sell-off after the Trump Tweet announcing more China tariffs represent the end of the road for the bull market? Too early to call. But judging from the futures markets, the balance has been upset. It […]

Does Downside Risk Outweigh Upside Potential?

After the S&P 500 managed a weekly close above 3000 the wind seems to be coming out of the sails. Last week finished down, with the lows of the week coming Friday at the close. With more and more companies issuing cautious forward guidance, it seems there may be more downside risk than up-side opportunity […]

Here Comes Earnings Season

The stage is set for an exciting earnings season. Guidance is one thing, but this is where the rubber to meet the road. Can earnings actually grow from here? Or have we seen peak earnings growth for this economic cycle? It may not matter… yet. The Fed has all but assured markets a rate cut […]

Just Right… for Indexes

Don’t look now but markets are near all-time highs (at least for the major indexes). Last week’s close was the highest (weekly) in history for the S&P500. Discount the fact it was a holiday-shortened week, but this is still a strong signal. Perhaps most noteworthy was the jobs report. With a big up-side surprise, this […]

Escape Velocity

Equity markets enjoyed a strong 1-week recovery but seem to have more-or-less stalled out after last week. The question is, can momentum break out above these levels, or will a more ominous ‘triple top’ signal a re-test of the 2600 level (or lower) for the S&P500? The BigFoot Economic Macro Indicator continues to slowly erode. […]