In Search Of…

It seems we’re all in search of something right now. For most of us, it’s clarity in data. Will the markets pull back from here? Is there an all-clear to buy more? The frustrating reality is that the rules of this game are being re-written mid-game. Somewhere between a pandemic and the largest global stimulus […]

What a Mess

Pricing is basically guessing at this point. A stimulus package may completely alter economic modeling as we currently know it. From loan payment deferrals to utility bill deferrals, it’s all up in the air. And that means uncertainty… Markets hate uncertainty. And now we get to add politics to the mix, as Congress can’t seem […]

That Escalated Quickly

It’s 4am on the West Coast. Markets looked shakey as I went to sleep. And for whatever reason, sleep just wasn’t happening. So at 3am I checked the futures markets. They’re suspended… Well, since I’m not sleeping anyway, let’s take the time to dig into this thing a little more than a typical Monday (and […]

Slowing the Bleeding

Unless you’re hiding under a rock you know last week was a mess for the markets. Coronavirus grabbed headlines and panic set in for investors. At this point, markets are pricing for recession. Trying to make sense of what’s happening is essentially a guessing game. Whether it is or is not likely to happen, the […]

SPX braces for a gap down

Is Coronavirus a Black Swan?

If there is such a thing as a self-fulfilling prophecy, the Coronavirus may be on its way to becoming the next ‘black swan’ of this market. We’ve been asking ourselves the question for some time: what is going to bring this bull market down? After all, since last October, valuations just kept climbing. Initially the […]

Circuit Breakers Tripped

Well, we’re in for it now. The Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl. And certainly congratulations are in order. But what does this mean for the markets? If the Super Bowl Indicator is to be believed, we’re in for a bear market. Of course, the accuracy of this indicator is highly questionable (having been […]


If the futures are any indicator, this equity markets are in for a breather Monday. Signs point to a drop of over 1.5% for major indexes. Before you go panicking about this pull back, be warned, this was not unexpected. Stocks have been on a major tear, trading about 1.5 standard deviations above their monthly […]

Melt Up

I’ve always thought ‘Melt Up’ was a stupid term. Nevertheless, it appears to be applicable. By all measures my typical measures this market is overbought. The SPX is nearly two standard deviations above the monthly pricing average (and has been such for several days now). It’s well above it’s 50/100/200 day trading averages. And even […]

Happy New Year 2020

Starting dicey with middle eastern conflict. But honestly, the Fed isn’t fooled. Policy unchanged, look for a pull-back, but the recipe doesn’t call for a massive pull-back… yet… Also, if you’re reading this, send an email to – playing with format for the new year. I want to know if anyone is actually using […]

Santa Said Risk On (But for How Long?)

It’s been a fantastic rally for stocks over the past couple months as Santa Claus was coming to town. Now is where things get interesting. As discussed, last week was really the last full ‘trading’ week of the year. With the Christmas and New Year’s Holidays happening mid-week you can count on lower trading volume […]