MAYbe

Markets finished down for the month of May (but not by much). Day-to-day swings remain high. Inflation remains high. Unemployment remains low. Sentiment remains… well, it depends on who you ask. But in general, people will suggest things are broken right now. What is unknown is how this resolves itself. Here’s a likely preview though: […]

Still Hunting for 4200

It’s a short week. Futures are down slightly indicating the same for Tuesday morning. Still, the 7-week streak was broken as the major indexes finished higher last week. The SPX still seems to want to test 4200 on the up-side. The question is, do you sell in May and go away? The down-trend is definitely […]

Bottom Not Confirmed

Last week had a potential recovery set-up early on. Aaaaaand… no. Still down for the week. A lot. The only real up-side was the finish on Friday, where the SPX crossed below the bear market threshold intra-day and reversed course to finish higher. Bottom line, while this market is showing signs of reaching a bottom, […]

Dead Cat Bounce?

This week looks like there may be a little short-term relief from the bears. No guarantees, of course, but the technical set-up suggests there could be a small recovery rally on the SPX as it looks to recover towards the 4170/4207 range. This would be a move of more than four percent – certainly welcome […]

Still Ugly

Difficult to tell where the bottom is on this market. While it’s already over-sold by many measures, the bears still seem to be in charge. This also appears to be more than a mechanical flushing-out of leverage. With the cost of capital on the rise, the markets seem to be (rather violently) re-evaluating the value […]

Bloodletting

April was an ugly month for investors — and advisors. You’re seeing headlines like ‘worst performance of the S&P 500 since WW2’ in the headlines. Armchair quarterbacking is pretty useless. Suffice it to say, many investors are playing the “I knew I should have” game right now. All the signs were there, right? Inflation; the […]

2 Steps Forward, 2.1 Steps Back

While the trend has been largely sideways for several months, the underlying indicators are hinting that things are getting worse. Each time the market makes a run, it seems to pull back just a little bit farther. If you missed last week’s forum call, consider downloading are watching the recording. There was a lot of […]

Rate Decision This Week

While markets continue to fight the steeper and steeper battle of inflation, eyes shift toward the FOMC this and Chairman Powell on Wednesday. Markets are expecting a 50 bp rate hike according to Bloomberg. And let’s be honest – calling what Americans are seeing with their own eyes inflation is almost inflammatory right now. ALL […]

Small Foothold

Despite all the doom and gloom of the news cycle, the equity markets may be establishing a small foothold. The low on 2/24/22 may have put in place a line in the sand. While there is still a lot of data to consider, the steepening yield curve and shrinking futures volatility suggests there may be […]

2/22/22

At this point the markets are trying to sort out just how bad it could get with a new war. Russia looks like they’re moving forward in Ukraine. Keep an eye on China next looking toward Taiwan. Meanwhile, the Fed is all but out of bullets as inflation goes nuts. So yeah, not a lot […]

Mind the 100dma

This week the SPX may key off of the 100 day moving average. Back on December 3 and 20, this was the support level for the index. That support was breached on January 19th, then re-tested February 2nd. So? So the major index has recovered from it’s January 26 intra-day low and rebounded back to […]

Too Early for the All Clear?

January has been rough on investors. The major indexes have all flirted with corrections. The Nasdaq has flirted with a full-blown bear market. The question is whether or not more selling is in the future? Short answer: unknown. The good news is, futures aren’t indicating a major swing down at the open. And Friday closed […]

Technical Breakdown Occurring

The summary of the markets is both simple and complex right now. In simple terms, it is experiencing a technical breakdown. In more complex terms, it is trying to re-price risk in the face of soon-to-change Fed policy. What makes this event complicated is how long it’s been since the Fed has changed anything. After […]

Searching for Support

With the tech sector under the microscope markets continue to search for support as stocks slide with rising rates. We’ve discussed (warned?) about this for a long time. Tech has grown to be a disproportionately large portion of the major indexes. So, if tech has a bad day, everybody has a bad day. Of course, […]