A Simple Look at the Numbers

Last week saw stocks reverse and climb in the latter half of the week. Chasing down the why is an odd game these days. Is the Chinese economy going to collapse? Price of oil to climb? Supply chains wrecked? US debt default? Your guess is as good as mine. Regardless, there seems to be a […]

TBD…

Actual commentary to follow. But the basics are this – looks like the market is still moving sideways from here. The technicals suggest neither a big run higher nor a big drop from here. And they’re pretty well betting Washington solves the budget problems. Now the question is how much additional spending to build into […]

Sentiment Changes

It seems the mood is starting to change for the markets. The headlines are shifting and the tone is becoming… less bullish. This is not unexpected. Much of the most aggressive covid relief is either over or baked into the economic expectations now. Unemployment extensions ended last week. Another debt ceiling debate is ramping up. […]

No Changes Yet

If you want insight into what’s going on in this market, join our forum call this Thursday the 9th. The big takeaway from everything technical right now is ‘the trend is your friend.’ This market just keeps going higher. And, despite all the doom-and-gloom predictions that the end of the world is imminent, the markets […]

Out of Order

Last week the SPX hit yet another all-time high. Meanwhile, the FOMC is talking out of both sides of their mouth, with individual committee members talking about the need to tighten policy, while the committee itself continues suggesting it will be — another year(?) or more — before any material shift in policy. Markets apparently […]

Still Climbing?

Markets have reached an interesting point. The underlying fundamental data, because of the seemingly permanent low interest rates, still suggests stocks are cheap relative to bonds. But the technical data shows stocks in a more tenuous position, looking over-bought while simultaneously showing signs of declining volatility. The big question mark seems to be inflation. Is […]

Looks Like Momentum Could Shift

Despite eking out new all-time highs for the major indexes last week, it looks like momentum may be starting to wane. The SPX managed new highs last Thursday. This may signal further upside. A look at the daily charts isn’t where the problem shows up. It’s in the weekly chart, where the trading range was […]

Climbing the Wall of Worry

While many continue to fear this market, it continues to climb the wall of worry. The pattern shows a likely pull-back from over-bought conditions. But it also looks like a likely recovery to challenge new all-time highs yet again (for the SPX). The concerns start in August, where we’ll have to contend with the end […]

50-day in Play

Futures markets indicate a continuation of Friday’s sell-off. Last week the S&P 500 managed to close lower than the prior week. It appears a bit of a trader’s pull-back may be in order. Technical indicators suggest the 50-day moving average will likely be tested early this week. That would be around the 4239, or a […]

Q3 Earnings Season Begins

Now that Q2 books are… um… in the books, investors and traders will get a look at whether or not the rumors matched reality. Many have speculated that earnings will be strong – especially when compared with comps from a year ago. Of course, the other key component to pay attention to is guidance. Investors […]

Q3

2021 passed the half-way point last week and the SPX managed to finish the week at an all-time high. This sets up a push/pull situation for this week’s holiday-shortened 4-day trading week. Last week the SPX broke out of its trading range and shot higher. In fact, it’s high enough now that it’s looking pretty […]

End of Q2

Last week provided a technical surprise as the SPX reversed course and broke out to all-time highs. This breakout should negate the sideways pattern that had presented the prior week. The next wave higher appears to be a move toward 4307/4350. We’re at the end of the quarter, so some volatility is not unexpected. We’re […]

Sideway Pattern Emerging

Based on last week’s move it looks like a sideways pattern is likely to emerge. The SPX fell about two percent for the week, dipping below the 50-day moving average. The area of support for the index now sits at 4135. That’s about 3/4 of a percent cushion for the index. But a close below […]