That’s What Makes Markets

It seems that, with the exception of the DJIA and S&P500, most of the stock market continues to push higher.  This in spite of the rate hike last week and impending trade wars this week. Of course, the futures markets are down headed into Monday’s open.  Is this the beginning of the next rip downward? […]

It’s Not About Trade Wars

The story of the day may be trade wars, but it’s not about trade wars.  It’s about interest rates. The trade wars may be great media fodder for political theater, but the economic impact is anything but known.  First, one has to determine if there even is a trade war (and Trump has mastered an […]

Hurry Up and Wait

So we wait… until the Fed goes ahead and raises interest rates again. The news cycle will be pushing trade war talks or currency shifts or commodity pricing.  But the story is still the Fed.  Do we have enough news — globally — to keep the Fed from hiking rates again?  Probably not…  the low […]

How Does Italian Uncertainty Affect US Equities?

The 10-year treasury yield is dropping again — in spite of the Fed’s rate hike campaign.  Presumably this is because many European bond traders are seeking safety in the US while Italy shakes out some issues.  Italian bonds tanked and yields spiked as talk is shifting to the possibility of a post-election exit from the […]

Clawing Back Highs

With trade war rhetoric declining, markets are showing signs of consolidation and retrenchment.  The SPX appears to be setting up a strong support level at 2700 or so.  This bodes well for the bulls out there, as the setup shows signs the January highs could be taken out in the coming weeks. At this point […]

Is the Bull Market Back On?

Last week may have been the break-out traders have been looking for as major indexes finished positive for the week. After several months of correction it looks like the 200-day moving average for the SPX is likely to hold support.  It has been tested several times.  Each time a wave of buyers showed up.  This […]

Mixed Signals Everywhere

With so many ‘this is good, but this is bad’ data points out there, it’s difficult to make heads or tails of this market.  Bull or bear?  Maybe the answer is neither… for now. The interesting thing that’s been going on, really since Janet Yellen stepped down as FOMC chair, is that volatility — in […]

What if Earnings Aren’t Enough?

The theme that’s starting to permeate this market is “what if earnings aren’t enough?”  So far the SP500 has, on average, exceeded Wall Street earnings estimates by around seven percent.  Yet stocks, after beating estimates, haven’t popped.  In fact, it seems the downside penalty this season has been about three times harsher than the upside […]

Some Algos Are Finding New Buys Out There

While the needle hasn’t exactly moved much, the bleeding seems to have stopped for now as the BF database crept ever-so-slightly higher toward the long side over the weekend.  The move itself is not all that statistically significant.  The fact that the declines stopped may be however. For now, the trading range has not been […]

Will the 200-day Moving Average Hold Support for the SPX?

Last Friday’s market fail was technically disappointing as a the week ended lower.  The 200-day moving average (currently at 2593) barely held up.  In fact, it was breached intraday last week. The technical set-up is now in messy territory.  On a day-over-day basis, it looks like the 200-day moving average is holding up as support.  […]

Is it Finally Bad Enough?

Q1-2018 is officially in the books — and what a frustration.  January came in like a bull, but February and March went out like bears.  In the end, there was a lot more volatility, but investors haven’t moved the needle much in terms of account values. The theme has been a mixed bag of good […]

50-dma Fail

If the futures markets are any indicator, then it looks like the 50-day moving average for the SPX is going to fail on Monday morning.  While this is not in and of itself a catastrophic sign, it’s disappointing as the recovery wave of this trend may be failing.  Intra-day the SPX managed to publish both […]

March Madness

Here’s the summary of what seems to matter: Trade wars are bad, but so far we’re not in a trade war. We have a a mixed bag of technical signals, but the underlying fundamentals appear pretty solid. Yields are rising, but apparently they’re still not enough to draw yield seekers away from the stock market. […]

A New Wrinkle

Last week introduced a new variable into the analysis:  trade wars. Not surprisingly, the markets declined.  The bigger question is, now what? Futures are forecasting another drop this morning.  The question is, will the 100-day moving average hold support again?  If not, we’re looking at the 200-day moving average.  That’s a decline on the SP500 […]

The Old Normal?

It appears some of the volatility of the last few weeks may be dissipating from the markets finally.  Last week’s move in the S&P500 finished every-so-slightly higher, ending the week-over-week slide for the index.  It appears the price movement may stay between 2700 and 2800 for the week (and yes, 100 points sounds like a […]