Melt Up

I’ve always thought ‘Melt Up’ was a stupid term. Nevertheless, it appears to be applicable. By all measures my typical measures this market is overbought. The SPX is nearly two standard deviations above the monthly pricing average (and has been such for several days now). It’s well above it’s 50/100/200 day trading averages. And even […]

Happy New Year 2020

Starting dicey with middle eastern conflict. But honestly, the Fed isn’t fooled. Policy unchanged, look for a pull-back, but the recipe doesn’t call for a massive pull-back… yet… Also, if you’re reading this, send an email to – playing with format for the new year. I want to know if anyone is actually using […]

Santa Said Risk On (But for How Long?)

It’s been a fantastic rally for stocks over the past couple months as Santa Claus was coming to town. Now is where things get interesting. As discussed, last week was really the last full ‘trading’ week of the year. With the Christmas and New Year’s Holidays happening mid-week you can count on lower trading volume […]

Beware of Pullbacks

After setting a series of all-time highs it equity markets may be ripe for a trader’s pull-back. This is typical any time there’s been a material run up in the markets. While the climb has been orderly, the SPX is showing over-bought characteristics at these levels. Based on our numbers, a pull-back toward the 3035-3050 […]

How High from Here?

Last week managed to finish at all-time highs for the SPX. The question now is how high can we go? While there is no pre-defined limit, our original 2019 projections had 3100 as a likely target. Given current momentum, the SPX may exceed this level either this week or next. The question will then shift […]

All-Timers and Pull-Backs

This is one of those deals where the headline is probably all you need. Look for the SPX to break out all time highs, then probable a quick trader’s pull-back to re-test about 3000 or so before a end-of-year move to push 3100. How’s that for short and sweet? IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION Please remember that […]

A Little Over-Sold

Markets still appear slightly oversold, even with a big rebound on Thursday and Friday last week. In fact, all three of the major indexes (DJIA, SPX, NASDAQ) have recovered their buy signals. This is a sign that volatility is again on the decline as markets seek to find traction. Most of the underlying technical data […]

Ready Q4

End of quarter rebalancing may generate some volatility today. Otherwise, markets look like they are staged to continue their sideways oscillation. There is little technically to suggest there is a breakout in either direction. Instead, it seems the all-time highs of the SPX remain resistance, and the 100-day moving average remains as support. The big-picture […]

Oil Grabs the Headlines

Markets are set to open lower with oil spiking higher. This is after Saudi Arabia had two oil facilities attacked by drones over the weekend. The US blames Iran. Iran claims innocence. Name calling ensues, and things quickly escalated to saber rattling. So, long story short, oil prices are spiking higher as some of Saudi […]

Keep Your Eyes On The Fed

The SPX may be in a sideways pattern, but the short-term momentum has shifted to the positive. Now all the analysts come out of the woodwork to try and explain why. Here’s the simple thing to do: Watch the Fed. If the news cycle isn’t going to change what they’re doing, odds are, the market […]

Reply Hazy, But Not Really

Let’s just throw something out there: a recession is on the horizon. That’s not particularly ground-breaking. And it’s not particularly useful. But it is particularly newsworthy. The fact of the matter is, all expansions eventually end in recession. So, unless the expansion continues, a recession is on the horizon. The question is not if there […]