What if Earnings Aren’t Enough?

The theme that’s starting to permeate this market is “what if earnings aren’t enough?”  So far the SP500 has, on average, exceeded Wall Street earnings estimates by around seven percent.  Yet stocks, after beating estimates, haven’t popped.  In fact, it seems the downside penalty this season has been about three times harsher than the upside […]

Some Algos Are Finding New Buys Out There

While the needle hasn’t exactly moved much, the bleeding seems to have stopped for now as the BF database crept ever-so-slightly higher toward the long side over the weekend.  The move itself is not all that statistically significant.  The fact that the declines stopped may be however. For now, the trading range has not been […]

Will the 200-day Moving Average Hold Support for the SPX?

Last Friday’s market fail was technically disappointing as a the week ended lower.  The 200-day moving average (currently at 2593) barely held up.  In fact, it was breached intraday last week. The technical set-up is now in messy territory.  On a day-over-day basis, it looks like the 200-day moving average is holding up as support.  […]

Is it Finally Bad Enough?

Q1-2018 is officially in the books — and what a frustration.  January came in like a bull, but February and March went out like bears.  In the end, there was a lot more volatility, but investors haven’t moved the needle much in terms of account values. The theme has been a mixed bag of good […]

50-dma Fail

If the futures markets are any indicator, then it looks like the 50-day moving average for the SPX is going to fail on Monday morning.  While this is not in and of itself a catastrophic sign, it’s disappointing as the recovery wave of this trend may be failing.  Intra-day the SPX managed to publish both […]

March Madness

Here’s the summary of what seems to matter: Trade wars are bad, but so far we’re not in a trade war. We have a a mixed bag of technical signals, but the underlying fundamentals appear pretty solid. Yields are rising, but apparently they’re still not enough to draw yield seekers away from the stock market. […]

A New Wrinkle

Last week introduced a new variable into the analysis:  trade wars. Not surprisingly, the markets declined.  The bigger question is, now what? Futures are forecasting another drop this morning.  The question is, will the 100-day moving average hold support again?  If not, we’re looking at the 200-day moving average.  That’s a decline on the SP500 […]

The Old Normal?

It appears some of the volatility of the last few weeks may be dissipating from the markets finally.  Last week’s move in the S&P500 finished every-so-slightly higher, ending the week-over-week slide for the index.  It appears the price movement may stay between 2700 and 2800 for the week (and yes, 100 points sounds like a […]

Watch the FOMC

Markets have been on a v-shaped recovery ever since the sell-off started a few weeks ago.  Since bottoming on February 9th there’s been an aggressive recovery.  But there’s also been an interesting shift in sentiment.  Has good news become bad news again?  (Meaning the markets think good economic data could force the Fed into raising […]

Is the Carnage Over?

Last week equity markets officially hit correction territory before bouncing off the lows of the week to finish up on Friday. So, is the carnage over?  Are markets done selling off? From a technical analysis story, the jury is still out. What was significant in the pricing action is the 200-day moving average for most […]

As You Were Not

If you thought this market only goes up, Friday was a painful reminder that things can fall too.  Markets experienced their worst day in about two years with the DJIA falling over 665 points and S&P500 falling over 65 points. Presumably this move was a result of a cocktail of economic news, the most recent […]

As You Were

The Fed meets this week.  A statement will be released on Wednesday at 2pm Eastern time.  Will the tone finally change on interest rates?  And if so, will the markets show a reaction? Even with the futures pointing to a slightly lower open, the technical strength of this bull market has been nothing short of remarkable.  […]

Will the Markets “Shut Down”?

This week it’s politics as usual, as the temper tantrum of partisanship has the Federal Government shut down.  And while this will have a temporary muting effect on the markets, it will likely be minimal in nature.  Odds are this problem gets solved in short order, and the markets will push even higher on the […]

Records be Breaking

If the futures markets are to be believed, records will be dropping like flies at the market open.  The SPX is set to break above 2800, and the DJIA is looking to eclipse 26,000.  And the momentum is yet to show signs of stopping. Of course, momentum will topple at some point.  But this is […]

Strong Start

Last week was the strongest start to the stock market in over a decade (since 2006).  The question on everyone’s mind:  can it last? Well, the markets may be slightly ahead of themselves in the very short term (meaning we could see some traders flipping a few positions here and there), but there’s a lot […]