If you’re looking for some kind of directional indication from the short-term, the markets aren’t hearing it.
Since the Christmas Eve lows of last year, this market has been on a tear… until the last two weeks or so. Now it seems escape velocity is waning. Each time the SPX hits 2800 momentum seems to dry up.
After last week’s negative move the 200-day moving average is back on the menu. The question is, will it be support or resistance?
Given the earnings season is largely behind us, the markets now get to shift to economic reports and politics. But don’t be fooled – the real story remains the FOMC. As long as the cheap money remains in play, there’s little reason for investors to go elsewhere for returns.
Technical signals are pretty benign here. The upside momentum may be washing out, but there’s no significant downside to speak of yet either. This leaves us with a few key support levels in the short-term: 2742; 2722; and 2679.
To translate this into percentages, there’s about a 2.5% downside risk this week (according to technicals). There’s a similar amount of upside. Looks like we’re range-bound in the short-term until the market gets some news to confirm a directional break-out. So far, 2800 continues to be resistance.
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