Posts

Reprieve… for now

It seems the markets are pleased with the aversion of a trade war with Mexico. Last week the SPX saw a near-4-percent recovery following the red on Monday. From Tuesday on, it was all green. And, judging from the futures markets, that trend is set to continue into the start of the week.

Does this mean we’re out of the woods and ready to print new all-time highs in the major indexes? Definitely not.

The key number for the SPX this week is 2892. A close above this level would be a sign markets may re-test the highs of the year. A failure here could be equally concerning though, as some technicians will quickly point out it could represent a triple top for the index. This, typically, is viewed as a negative signal for the markets.

The end of the week is the bigger tell. An intra-week close above 2892 is by no means an assurance this market is out of the Woods. In fact, a move above this level, followed by a pull-back and close below the 50-day moving average for the week could be viewed as a re-test and failure after the last pull-back.

Here’s the story by the pictures:

The SPX range is highly unpredictable this week. Will the recovery continue or stall out at near 2892 levels?
Key numbers for the week (with key resistance at 2892)
S&P500 sector proxies
Market Capitalization Proxies
Updated 2019 Projection Chart

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

The Tariff Tantrum

Markets are bracing for a drop after the weekend announcement that tariffs on Chinese goods are not only back on the table but bigger than before.

What this translates to for the markets is uncertainty. For the past couple of months the China trade negotiations were largely an after-thought. This brings things back to the forefront.

Trying to understand (or predict) how China will respond is a study in both culture, gamesmanship, and so much more. And frankly, it’s beyond the scope of this blogger. Instead, let’s focus on what the market may look at.

Futures are set to open significantly lower. The SPX appears ready to test the 2900 support level. This is a fairly significant emotional line in the sand for traders. It’s also a big round number. But it’s well above the 50-day moving average of 2852.

A drop below the 50-day moving average this week would be psychologically damaging – especially when many folks begin to get suspicious about the “sell in May and go away” adage.

The 50-day moving average is about 3.7% lower than Friday’s close. A one-week drop of this magnitude would likely throw the markets into a sideways pattern while more news gets sorted out. It doesn’t mean it’s time to brace for a bear market. But we could be in for several weeks of increased volatility and sideways moves as trade negotiations move front-and-center for a while.

Despite the fact that the tariffs will hurt China significantly, there’s no guarantee they will respond as hoped. So this could drag on for a while. And it could have a real impact on GDP and growth for the S&P500 companies. A roll-back to the beginning of 2Q19 is easily possible. That would put the SPX back between 2786 and 2852. If China responds with tariffs of their own, it could push things down even further (although the economic impact of these tariffs would likely be less damaging to the US as we import more than we export from China).

It is way to early to suggest the US bull market is dead because of this. Quite the contrary, economic data remains robust. So while this is a bump in the road — and certainly it increased uncertainty — and likely volatility with it — it’s entirely possible the markets will pull back a bit, find their footing, and continue forward. Consider the fact there are still few more attractive options for yield than the US stock market (even with these new tariffs on Chinese goods).

If you think about all the options available to you — be they super-low-interest-rate fixed-income products, foreign equities, real estate. or commodities — there are still few options that look more attractive than US equities when comparing the overall risk-to-reward opportunities. This should keep a bid under the US market (or at least reduce the likelihood of a massive wave of selling).

Whatever the case, we should have more clarity as the week rolls on. For now, there’s a bunch of speculation and guessing as the markets try to sort this stuff out. As the data becomes clear, we’ll get a better understanding of where things are headed.

For the week, look at the 2900/2912 level for the first area of SPX support. After that, we may fall all the way to the 50-day moving average at 2852.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

S&P500 Enters Over-Bought Territory

Last week was another strong showing for the SPX in 2019.  In fact, so far, there have only been 3 negatives closes for the year.  The last time we saw the markets start this strong was… oh yeah, last year.  Then, in February, everything tanked.

This is not to say that everything is gearing up to tank again.  But it is to say the markets may be getting out ahead of themselves a bit.

Perhaps the biggest difference between 2018 and 2019 is where the markets have been.  After 2017’s strong upward move, the markets were still pushing higher.  After 2018’s late-year collapse, the markets are still recovering.

From a technical perspective, we’re now in a fragile zone.  The fundamental data is holding thus far.  So a bottom may have been put in on Christmas Eve 2018.  Typically you’ll get some kind of pull-back — or even a re-test — after the drop and bounce the markets have just experienced.  The key is where to measure from.

The low on Christmas Eve of last year is a pretty easy spot to peg on the charts.  From that point, we saw a v-bottom recovery up until today.  How high this initial bounce goes is yet to be determined.  As of last Friday, the SPX crossed above its 50-day moving average.  However, it’s still below it’s 100 and 200-day moving averages.

If a relatively typical 50-percent retracement were to occur at this point, we could measure between either the 50, 100, or 200-day moving average back to Christmas Eve.  Doing this, we get either 2554, 2548, or 2495.  We can also toss 2516 in there based on last Friday’s close.  That’s anywhere from a 4.3-to-6.5 percent pull-back from Friday’s close.

What happens if support fails at these levels?  Well, it gets tricky.  There’s sort of a last-resort number at 2480.  But if that level gets violated, we’re looking at 2408 or a full-blow re-test of the Christmas Eve lows.  We do not want to discuss the outcome if the markets hit a lower low.  Let’s just say we could be partying like it’s 1999…  or maybe 2150.

What happens if we don’t get a pull-back at all?  Outcome unclear.

If there is no pull-back, presumably it’s because we’ve seen a material shift in expectations for the economy.  As of now, people are on the look-out for recessionary signals.  So anything that pushes that probability farther out into the future would be greeted as good news to this markets.  And we could see a drive even further towards the 2825-2884 range — or perhaps significantly higher.

So enjoy the January effect.  But before you get too excited about the possibility of a market melt-up, let’s all take a deep breath and see if we can breach the 200-day moving average and close above this level for a couple weeks.  That would be a strong signal that the Christmas hangover was behind us.  Until such time, we’re not out of the woods on this thing yet.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

 

Retrenchment

Thank you Veterans.

And for the rest of us market jocks, what’s the scoop for the week?  Look for retrenchment above SPX 2750.  In fact, look for 2800 this week as markets seek to find footing.

While the 200-day moving average should form some support, futures trading has been eradic over the weekend.   At first, futures showed a higher open.  But things swung to the downside as Europe opened and oil prices pushed higher.

This kind of pricing behavior is not necessarily predictive of anything other than folks repositioning over the weekend.  And since the range for the repositioning was relatively narrow, it may simply be noise.  Given last week’s strong move higher — after a 10% correction for most indexes — and a ‘nearly’ completed election — it looks like the markets are poised to start reclaiming some of their last ground from October.

One of the growing concerns is in the housing market.  Keep an eye on that in the coming months.  While stocks remain attractive relative to everything else, the housing market slow-down may be a sign that this almost-10-year economic expansion is feeling the affects of higher interest rates more than folks may care to admit.

It may sound funny, because mortgage rates in the 5’s are still historically low.  But, compared to mortgage rates in the 3’s, they’re some 30% higher than they used to be.  For folks that have never known higher borrowing costs in their lives (save credit cards), this could be a legitimate point of contention.

As a housing market aside, it’s going to be very interesting to follow what comes out of the massive forest first in California.  Not only has there been loss of life.  There’s been massive loss of property (which may actually be stimulative for the housing market).  There’s been massive strain on infrastructure.  And it’s called to the forefront some of the questionable Federal forest management policy that’s lead to these massive fires.  (Admittedly, this is something personal for me as the Pacific Northwest experiences fires every summer.  However, with only 4 million or so people in Oregon, there are not enough votes to seem to move the needle much in Washington.  But have this happen in California, and now we have your attention.)  Federal changes in forest management could potentially unlock a lot of value in timber.  If this were to happen, the housing markets would need to be reexamined.

Look for some early volatility this week as markets find their footing.  As long as the SPX stays above 1750 or so a recovery trend is still probable.  A close below this level and we’ll have to reconsider whether the Santa Clause rally is really coming to town.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Disconnect

Equity markets had a pretty solid pull-back last week.  The question is why?  Is there a fundamental shift in the economic data?  Profit taking?

It may have been a derivative of the ‘Trade War’ with China.  China has threatened to sell off $3B or so of US Treasuries.  Assuming this is credible, the front running of this decision could explain the move in the 10-year treasury.

While stocks and bonds are supposedly not highly correlated, that relationship is not always true.  Last week’s price action seemed the opposite certainly.  The question is, will this persist?

The technical action in the SPX is a bit early to call.  The next line in the sand to watch is the 2877 level — the 50-day moving average.  Beyond that and we get into more material pull-back areas closer to 2800.  The 2900-level provided little resistance last week as the SPX fell below this support area.

So, for now at least, we wait and watch.  It’s a tale of 2 levels.  Will the SPX retreat to the next major support level at 2800?  Or will it find footing near the 50-dma and begin the climb back toward 2900 and beyond?  Historically speaking, October, despite some key outliers, it usually a positive month for the markets (as is Q4 in general).  While the bias for the next day or two may be negative, we’ll see if this is just a trader’s blip, or something more significant.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Now the Stock Markets Can Start July

True, there was some pretty strong jobs data and a reassurance from the FOMC last week that rates aren’t going to go rocketing higher any time soon.  Still, the 4th of July holiday fell on a Wednesday, and Tuesday was a shortened day.  PLUS, it was the beginning of the 3rd quarter.  What does this all add up to?  Vacations – for lots of the major market players.  That’s why last week’s market movement needs to be taken with a grain of salt.

It’s not that the data didn’t matter.  It’s that fewer participants were around to adjust to it.  If the futures are any indicator though, folks liked what they saw last week.  The SPX is poised to move another third of a percent or so higher (if the futures are right).  And the technical pattern showed a pretty solid reversal at 50-day moving average (just above the 2700 support level).

In spite of all the tariff and trade war talk, the markets continue to produce strong earnings.  Even without multiple expansion this is a recipe for higher stock prices.  And that seems to be what’s in store right now.

For the week, look for 2800 to be the resistance area to watch on the SPX.  Or, more specifically, 2771 and 2788 as pit-stops on the climb to re-take 2800.  Regardless, the stage is set.  If this week can produce a climb higher, it’s likely the January highs will be soon to follow.  If for some reason the SPX manages to close below 2700, then we’re still stuck in the sideways trade (or worse) — but that seems like a low probability at this point.

As an aside, those who watch the DJIA as a key indicator may be disappointed for a time.  With the recent turnover in holdings — and the market’s infatuation with tech — this index has been in opposition to a lot of major market trends this year.  In the BigFoot database, it’s the only major index that has a wait signal associated with it.  Otherwise, most signals have re-entered the market.  So keep that little tid-bit in the back of your mind.  The non-financial mega-caps have not been the best performers of 2018.

As another aside, financials as a block have seem to struggle a lot recently as well.  This may be a key week for them, given that, as a sector, they’ve experienced a greater-than-10% correction for the year.  This could prove an interesting technical re-entry point (though don’t misconstrue this as a recommendation to buy – it’s merely a commentary that the sector may be nearing a technical low-point).

For the week, look for a positive bias to the SPX, with 2800 being the next major resistance area to test.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Does this Week Even Count?

Because the 4th of July holiday falls on a Wednesday this week — and the 4th-of-July-Eve holiday apparently justifies a half-day for the markets on Tuesday — you can expect a couple things this week:

  • Volume will likely be lower than average
  • Volatility may be higher than average (on lower volume)

There’s actually a fair amount of economic data due to be released this week – including FOMC minutes.  So there markets will have some things to digest.  But many of the players will likely be out of the office until next week.  So, while it’s bold to say, it’s possible this week is kind of a throw-away.  It’s similar to the Christmas/New Year’s holidays in that many of the players have more-or-less positioned their books so they can be out of the office.

So don’t expect a breakout week.  Futures are indicating a lower open on Monday, with the 100-day-moving-average looking like the support level — right about 2700 for the S&P500.  If you’re looking for resistance, you’ll find the first major areas at 2750 and 2790.

Have a safe 4th of July — and remember:  no forum call this week!

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

How Does Italian Uncertainty Affect US Equities?

The 10-year treasury yield is dropping again — in spite of the Fed’s rate hike campaign.  Presumably this is because many European bond traders are seeking safety in the US while Italy shakes out some issues.  Italian bonds tanked and yields spiked as talk is shifting to the possibility of a post-election exit from the EU.

We’ll skip the (most of) the politics and finger pointing because that’s not what this blog is about.  We want to talk technical shop.  What does all this mean for the equity markets?

In the very short-term, it means a pull-back in equities.  But after a few days of digesting things, a recovery may be in the cards.  When you strip away all of the other noise, here are some key things to keep in mind:

  • US economic data remains pretty solid
  • Earnings season was great
  • Borrowing rates remain low
  • Credit spreads, while widening slightly, are still pretty narrow

Given the macro picture — and the unknown issues in Italy (which is not a huge contributor to the EU economic output) — it seems like this data isn’t enough to derail the bulls just yet.

When looking at the technical picture, the number to watch Tuesday today is 2700 on the SPX.  For the week, keep an eye on the 50-day moving average at 2673 as well.

Resistance is likely to be around 2750 or so.  A close above this level on Friday would be a positive sign for this market.

The reality is that unless Italy is a sign of more significant global contagion, this is likely to remain contained.  It’s not a significant impact on global GDP.  So life probably goes on.

Given the shortened trading week and end of the month, it’s both possible and likely we’ll see higher volatility this week.  S&P futures dipped down to 2690.25 overnight.  It’s possible there will be a move down at the open to test this level.  If so, it is important the equity markets find a support at the 50-day moving average.  Ideally, a reversal with a close above 2700 would confirm support at these levels.  That would indicate the markets have consolidated around the 2700 price and traders are looking for justification to push things higher.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Clawing Back Highs

With trade war rhetoric declining, markets are showing signs of consolidation and retrenchment.  The SPX appears to be setting up a strong support level at 2700 or so.  This bodes well for the bulls out there, as the setup shows signs the January highs could be taken out in the coming weeks.

At this point the SPX has climbed above both the 50, 100, and 200-day moving averages.  Small cap indexes have also started moving more aggressively to the up-side.  Both are good signs that the risk-on trade may be back in vogue.

The SPX 100-day moving average is actually higher than the 50-day.  If these two averages flip (with the 50 above the 100) that is a potential confirmation the markets are gearing to take out January high water markets.

Fingers crossed!

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

 

Is the Bull Market Back On?

Last week may have been the break-out traders have been looking for as major indexes finished positive for the week.

After several months of correction it looks like the 200-day moving average for the SPX is likely to hold support.  It has been tested several times.  Each time a wave of buyers showed up.  This is classic correction/recovery territory for a bull market.

The recent push higher has driven the markets into a slightly over-bought situation, but this may not lead to a significant pull-back from here.  If the SPX were to pull back though, it support is likely to materialize at the 2700 level, or just below at the 50-day moving average.

The ‘set up’ right now appears to be one for the markets to move higher from here.  Last week’s move validated support and pushed through the psychological resistance level of 2700.  If this week finishes higher it’s likely the markets will continue grinding higher to re-test the January highs for the year.

Ironically, while the markets are showing ‘good news’ with things recovering, it appears to be the ‘bad news’ cycle that keeps things moving higher.  Too good and markets worry the Fed will change monetary policy.  Too bad and things are actually pretty bad.  But not good?  That seems to be the Goldilocks spot:  not good enough for the Fed to change, but not bad enough for money to move out of the markets.

Goofy times we live in.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.