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Were Bears Just Invited to Dinner?

Let’s cut through the fluff and get right to the meat and potatoes of the market – did last week’s sell-off after the Trump Tweet announcing more China tariffs represent the end of the road for the bull market?

Too early to call. But judging from the futures markets, the balance has been upset. It looks like more than a 1.5% pull-back is on the horizon for the open today.

At this point, the markets — and the SPX specifically — would be best to stay above the June pull-back lows near 2725. That leaves some additional room to decline, as futures imply an open around 2875 or so today.

The challenge is in the economic data. With earnings still rolling along, but guidance still cautious, and the Fed lowering rates on eroding data — plus the rest of the world’s central banks already at lows — the ‘race to the bottom’ for rates could be accelerating. If that happens, it will get harder to stave off deflation.

Markets know this. After all, if 10-year money only yields 2%, how much up-side is expected in the long term? The problem is, the markets also know there’s been nowhere else to find yield, so the blue chips have been the ‘risk’ asset folks seem to have flocked to to extract yield. At some point, this riskier play may come back to haunt.

While it’s not yet time to worry, it’s time to be ‘on alert.’ The concern is that many investors have been watching for a signal that the bull is dead. The same investors that were forced into the market seeking yield may be the ones that get nervous and exit just as quickly. If so, we could see risk re-price quickly.

When do the bond substitute-ers run for the door? Who knows? But if risk is truly mispriced, when they do run for the door, the markets should notice.

The new issue that comes with the question is, how long before the bear trumpets become a self-fulfilling prophecy? At some point, every prior bull market has come to an end. Most believe this will be the case again. But how to recognize it?

The concern comes in how quickly sentiment seems to be shifting. Markets have been climbing a wall of worry for months – maybe even years now. Those little naysayer voices are getting louder though. At some point, what starts as a pull-back will become an actual bear event. Call me crazy, but I think the place to watch right now is those blue chips – the same mega-caps that have carried the index to all-time highs while masking the underlying weakness in small and mid-caps may be the very tell-tail that markets are turning.

Before you let your emotions get the best of you though, consider this: the trend is not broken, and every other pull-back this year has been similarly violent.

The issue is, there really isn’t any ‘new’ information that justifies panic. Trade is still an issue, rates are still super low, and TINA is still forcing yield-seekers into higher risk assets. The Fed has also maintained its commitment to as much transparency as it can muster, all but showing us the hand they’re holding as they make policy. So there’s not an issue of transparency. There’s simply a question of when will investor sentiment shift enough to move markets into bear territory?

If you have the answer, by all means, share. Otherwise, we’ll just have to stick with the data and the key numbers. This week, the SPX will likely open around 2875 or so. The week could get ugly though. If the market doesn’t find a bid, the 200-day moving average may be in sight in the next couple of weeks. That’s down around 2790.

The “Oh Crap” level is below 2744 or so. This would indicate a close below the June lows. It would also be a ‘lower low’ in the pricing pattern. While it’s unlikely the markets will fall that low this week, it’s a number to keep in the back of your mind. A breach of this level — or the intra-day lows of 2728.81 — would be a bearish signal. At that point, the SPX is likely to go into office correction territory. We’ll take a deeper dive in this blog should those events occur.

For now, look for a rougher week in the markets — or certainly a rough Monday. The BF database is still over 77% long, but we can expect that will shift over the week should volatility continue over the next few days.

This is a normal part of markets. Not every day goes up. And we’ve been spoiled with low volatility for a few years now. It’s often important to remind ourselves of this. Keep perspective – investing is long-term, and this is all part of a market. This is also where opportunities are born. So we’ll be keeping our eyes open.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

The Trade Wars Begin

While it sounds like an episode from Star Wars, this may not be fantasy. The trade talks between the US and China appear to be breaking down. At this point, both sides are talking new tariffs. And the speculation about just how quickly the world will come to an end has begun.

Putting political commentary aside, what does this mean for investors?

In a word: it’s bad.

Futures are getting hammered as markets appear poised to drop about 2% across the board. The 10-year treasury yield has also dropped as people seek safe-haven assets. Even the BigFoot database has dropped from over 82% long to around 75% long. So this is becoming more than just a squawking media cycle.

Support may be tough to find in this market. There’s been such a steady climb the last month that there are very few ‘stops’ on the way back down. The first noteworthy area the markets reversed is the intra-day low set back on March 27th at 2787.

Here are key support levels from there: 200-day moving average is at 2776. 100-day moving average is at 2749. And then there’s the March 8th low of 2722.

All of these levels imply a drop of over 3% for the week.

The only silver lining to this situation is that it could end. Should a deal be reached, markets would now view this as a VERY positive event that could push things to all-time highs in short order. Otherwise, the upward momentum is shot. We’re now looking at a sideways pattern where the markets have to find their footing, re-test a few times, and see if they can grind higher.

So yes, this news is damaging. Unless something happens today that gives the market a hard reversal — something that has this market finishing in the green today (which, frankly, is hard to rationalize given the current data) — there’s likely more damage to come.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

New Year’s Shift

Happy New Year!

This is the first full week of trading for the year – so back to work!

Markets are trying to shake off the December 2018 hangover. Last week’s first trading week sure made it interesting. The big news was the blowout jobs report last Friday coupled with the more Dovish tones from the Fed. This cocktail was the recipe for a huge rally on Friday.

Has this changed anything? Only the short-term outlook. It seems everyone had written off the economy for dead in December. With the Fed tightening, it was only a matter of time before the recession word came into play. But then the jobs numbers came out.

Realistically, the problems are unchanged from last year. The difference is outlook on the Fed. If the money supply isn’t going to be choked off even more aggressively (because, remember, they’re still reducing their balance sheet and no longer buying bonds), perhaps the economy can continue to grow.

Plus the American public is about to get a very real look at whether or not they will experience personal tax savings under this new plan. It’s been a popular target because of growing deficits at the Federal level, but folks are about to get a direct taste of ‘what’s in it for me.’

Some good news on China talks, the Federal government starts operating again (this is less of a concern to the market than the media would have you believe), and some decent earnings numbers and guidance in Q1 and this market could be back on track in short order.

The Fed shifts to more hawkish, trade talks with China drag on with no change, or we start to see numbers indicating an actual economic slowdown, and this market could head south all over again.

So for now, we wait a couple weeks and see how the data shapes up.

If you want to be a stickler, the SPX actually hit a 20% drop from peak-to-trough during December. So one could argue we’ve had the shortest bear market we’ve ever seen. Strangely, no one seems to be saying that. The talking heads keep talking about when the bull will die… so apparently an intra-day swing, or a one-day blip, isn’t how they want to measure things.

For the week, it look for 2408 support, and really no upside resistance to speak of, so 2575/2600. If this seems like a comically large range for a technical call… it is. But that’s what happens when you’ve had the kind of volatility that wrapped up last year. Things get blown-out, over-sold, and the algo’s get a little wild. Until volatility subsides (if), this may be typical for a while.

Cheers and fingers crossed for a great 2019!

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

2018 Lows in Sight

Looks like the stock markets made Santa’s naughty list. Last week seemed like things were stabilizing until the Friday afternoon selloff threw that idea out the window. At this point, sentiment is shot. It’s the end of the year. And the Fed has backed itself into a corner – damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t. Because, despite decent earnings and decent economic data, the perception is the economy is rolling over.

So it looks like the lows of 2018 may be revisited soon. Friday’s price action already pulled the major indexes back into correction territory. There’s just very little traction to be had. And unless Jay Powell pulls a rabbit out of his hat, there seems to be little for the market to get excited about this year.

Short of a formally inked trade deal with China, it appears the high for the year was put in back in October. And it appears the low for the year may yet to be seen.

For the week, look for continued volatility as the market searches for a low around 2532 intra-day. If the SPX breach of this level and you have to start looking into 2017-year for support levels… we’ll cross that bridge if (or perhaps when) we get to it. Judging from the futures markets, Monday will open lower. If the Fed-speak is wrong though, a 60-ish point decline for the week is more than possible.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Searching for Support

After another ugly week of down-side, reports all over the internet insist the futures are indicating a drop for the US stock markets today. Will it happen? Maybe.

Over the weekend stocks dropped in Europe, China, Japan and the like. US Futures were also down about 1% or so from Friday’s close. But futures have climbed back to about even overnight. This puts the markets in an interesting spot.

The 2630ish level was a big one as it markets the October and November low points for the SPX. The index has now visited this level 4 times. The prior three times markets found support and rallied. The fourth time was last Friday – and the markets closed at this level.

So, does the market rally from this point? Trade sideways? Or is there more downside?

From a technical perspective, it’s difficult to call. The short-term signal is for a bounce higher from here. Markets appear over-sold, and the news driving things down appears to be more about rumors than it does about economic data. If one wrong utterance about China and trade can take the markets down 100 SPX points, one has to wonder what a right utterance could do.

Longer term, the technical picture is concerning. It’s a tale of two big-picture events. Does the bull market regroup can go higher, or are we in for a more significant big-picture pull back (aka bear market)? And IF it were a bear, how far does it drop from here? On one hand, there’s a figure of about 27% decline. On the other, more than 40%.

The thing is, the economic data doesn’t support a 40% pull-back. It just doesn’t tell this story. Even if you can squiggle some lines on charts and talk about how this could happen, what economic reality must come to pass in order to generate such a mess?

Answer: who knows? We can all speculate. Perhaps it’s the failure of a major state pension plan. Perhaps it’s a full-blown trade war with China. Perhaps it’s a nuclear missile launch from North Korea. Whatever the black swan event, it’s not ‘known’ by the markets. So it’s tough to call it priced in.

At this point, the markets have priced in a lot of bad news. Multiples have fallen. Many stocks are in bear market territory. And, in many cases, if it weren’t for the cap-weighted nature of the indexes, you’d see that many of the non-mega-cap stocks have already gone through bear-like corrections.

This week should be interesting. If 2630 or so holds, it’s a good sign. If not, there’s little indication where the next level of support is. We will likely re-visit the February lows for the market. For the SPX, that’s another 100 points of downside from here (or just under 4%).

Get your Santa rally caps on. This market may need it.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Correction Territory

Last week the SPX officially crossed into correction territory.  For those of you unclear what that means, it was a full 10% drop from the high-water mark set at the beginning of October.  This also send the major indexes into negative territory for their year-to-date return figures.  So it’s been a rough month.

Is there an end in sight?  Maybe.  But it’s always tricky catching a falling knife.

Currently, futures are pointing to a higher open this week.  But frankly, there’s little reason for markets to move significantly higher at this point given this week is election week.  Now next week on the other hand?

At this point there are no well defined support or resistance numbers, as the markets do not seem to be playing by technical levels at this point.  A different set of trading algo’s seems to be driving the day – that of underlying moving averages.  And there are lots of individual positions out there we negative moving price averages.

Post-election is an appropriate time to take stock of where we’re at and whether or not there’s much chance to salvage 2018.  For the time being, expect continued volatility.

On the plus side, at least the futures are indicating a higher open for today.  The question is, will this be another dead-cat bounce, or the beginning of a bottom to this market?  We shall see…

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Is this Pull-Back Nearly Complete?

Futures indicate a lower open on Monday for the SPX.  It’s been tough for large-caps lately given the loud shouts of ‘Trade Wars’ from media outlets.  It’s still quite unknown as to what may really happen there.  Some winners and losers will definitely get tossed around, but will the overall markets be harmed?  It’s too early to tell.

While pull-backs are not fun, this thing has played it by the numbers.  If the futures are any indication, the SPX will declined back to the mid-point of it’s 1-month (or so) trading range.  Once there, we’ll see if things stabilize and begin climbing higher.  The underlying fundamental story supports further upside from here.

For the week, look for 2740 as a key support/pivot point.  If the SPX holds up here, a reversal move back toward the 2800 level is likely.  If support fails, look for 2718/2700.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Will the 200-day Moving Average Hold Support for the SPX?

Last Friday’s market fail was technically disappointing as a the week ended lower.  The 200-day moving average (currently at 2593) barely held up.  In fact, it was breached intraday last week.

The technical set-up is now in messy territory.  On a day-over-day basis, it looks like the 200-day moving average is holding up as support.  However, on a week-over-week basis, the data is less conclusive.

It appears a significant area of support is setting up at the 2585 level.  That was the previous low mark in the current pull-back.  It is also barely above the 2582, which is the current tipping point for the Market Macro Indicator.

While the futures markets have been higher over the weekend, the talk about trade wars continues to escalate.  It seems unlikely both China and the US would cut their noses off (economically speaking) to spite their face.  So this is likely more about rhetoric and negotiation posturing.  But it’s certainly got the markets spooked.

More importantly, the futures markets seem to do little to point out the future these days.  Other than confirming the immediate trend in the markets — and perhaps providing some insight into the extreme highs and lows in the trading day — there seems to be less correlation between the futures and the market than in prior months.  So take the data with a grain of salt.

The 200-day moving average appears to be the place to watch.  If that holds, it looks like a trading range between 2600 or so on the downside, and 2700 on the upside until earnings season gets rockin’ in another week or two.  If earnings continue to shine, the uptrend can resume (as long as tariff talks moderate).  If not…   well, let’s not borrow trouble just yet.

For now, the algo database has shaved another point off, dropping to 28% long.  The marcro’s are holding steady and remain long.  One thing’s for sure, it ain’t boring!

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

50-dma Fail

If the futures markets are any indicator, then it looks like the 50-day moving average for the SPX is going to fail on Monday morning.  While this is not in and of itself a catastrophic sign, it’s disappointing as the recovery wave of this trend may be failing.  Intra-day the SPX managed to publish both a higher high and higher low for last week.  Still, the Monday open appears to be pretty sloppy.  It looks like about a 0.5% drop out of the gate.  And, if history is any indicator of how things will go, we could see follow-through on the trend that moves the trend even lower.

With the open dropping below the 50-day moving average (at 2748), the nest line in the sand will be 2700 — or the 100-day moving average at 2685.

Even if the markets test the 2685-support range this week, it does not mean the bull market is officially ‘dead’ or anything drastic.  The speed and aggressiveness of how the market seeks this level could come into play though.  A very aggressive drop this week could spook investors.  If so, we may be looking at a re-test of the market lows, and a more material correction period.

More likely, the markets will continue to be volatile, and we’ll trade in a sideways pattern with a point range between 1700 and 1850 for a while until some kind of shift in economic data gives investors a reason to commit more seriously to a direction.  Until then, it’s the an obnoxious Goldilocks market — neither too hot nor too cold to break out of a sideways trend.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

March Madness

Here’s the summary of what seems to matter:

Trade wars are bad, but so far we’re not in a trade war.

We have a a mixed bag of technical signals, but the underlying fundamentals appear pretty solid.

Yields are rising, but apparently they’re still not enough to draw yield seekers away from the stock market.

The BigFoot database of long positions has declined to the lowest point it’s been in over two years, but it appears to be stabilizing at these levels.  The DJIA, S&P500, and NASDAQ Indexes all have sell signals, but the the Macro Indicators remain long.

Last week the 100-day moving average provided support for the S&P500, and the 50-day moving average was blown through after Friday’s strong jobs number.  So the 50-day now gets to potentially change rolls, providing support for the index.  That puts the number to watch at 2742 for Monday — though it may rise through the week toward 2750.

On the upside, we’re looking at 2800 as the first line in the sand, with 2825 next on the chart.  From there, we’ll start talking about taking out the highs for the year…  but one step at a time.

The futures are indicating a positive start to the week.  Given the talk of trade wars, tariffs will likely be the key news narrative.  The set-up is for a move over 2800.  If a pull-back comes, look at the 50-day moving average as the first line of defense.  The 100-day is second.  A move below that and we should examine the news cycle — things would have to be pretty ugly at that point as we’re talking about a short-term technical fail at that point.  Otherwise, 2800 is the number to watch — and we could break through that early Monday morning and spend the rest of the week inching higher from there.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.