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2018 Lows in Sight

Looks like the stock markets made Santa’s naughty list. Last week seemed like things were stabilizing until the Friday afternoon selloff threw that idea out the window. At this point, sentiment is shot. It’s the end of the year. And the Fed has backed itself into a corner – damned if it does, damned if it doesn’t. Because, despite decent earnings and decent economic data, the perception is the economy is rolling over.

So it looks like the lows of 2018 may be revisited soon. Friday’s price action already pulled the major indexes back into correction territory. There’s just very little traction to be had. And unless Jay Powell pulls a rabbit out of his hat, there seems to be little for the market to get excited about this year.

Short of a formally inked trade deal with China, it appears the high for the year was put in back in October. And it appears the low for the year may yet to be seen.

For the week, look for continued volatility as the market searches for a low around 2532 intra-day. If the SPX breach of this level and you have to start looking into 2017-year for support levels… we’ll cross that bridge if (or perhaps when) we get to it. Judging from the futures markets, Monday will open lower. If the Fed-speak is wrong though, a 60-ish point decline for the week is more than possible.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Mixed Signals Everywhere

With so many ‘this is good, but this is bad’ data points out there, it’s difficult to make heads or tails of this market.  Bull or bear?  Maybe the answer is neither… for now.

The interesting thing that’s been going on, really since Janet Yellen stepped down as FOMC chair, is that volatility — in general — spiked.

Intra-day volatility has remained pretty high.  But week-to-week, it seems like the swings are starting to normalize somewhat.  Could it be as simple as the markets getting used to Jerome Powell at the FOMC now — and realizing there has not been a significant policy shift nor a radical departure in communication style from the Fed?  And if so, is there really that much of a reason to expect the bears to drag this thing down much further?

If the market is primarily concerned with the cost of capital, it seems the corporate earnings picture is proving that the incremental rate hikes are yet to have a significant impact on things.  And the tax cuts are still just being realized in the system.  So…  geopolitics… which haven’t been a significant influencer of the markets (or even volatility for that matter) for the past several years, are all the sudden the big concern for the markets?  Don’t seem to jive with how the markets have behaved the last few years.

Seems more like the markets have to decide whether or not the ‘peak earnings’ theory throw out there by CAT is the real question.  And so far, the answer appears to be no.  So apparently it’s not what have you done for me lately, but what are you going to do for me next, that the market is looking for.

On last week’s conference call we discussed the pennant pattern the S&P500 has been forming through most of 2018.  This week the number to watch is 2688.  A close above this level for the week could be the start of a break-out that has this market re-test the 2018 highs published in January (fun stuff).  A close below the 200-day moving average (currently 2611, but call support 2600) would be a break-out to the other side, and signal a move lower.

We’ll see if this week signals a ‘sell in May and go away’ event, or if the old wive’s tales or the markets are nothing but baloney.  Have a great week!

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

 

The Old Normal?

It appears some of the volatility of the last few weeks may be dissipating from the markets finally.  Last week’s move in the S&P500 finished every-so-slightly higher, ending the week-over-week slide for the index.  It appears the price movement may stay between 2700 and 2800 for the week (and yes, 100 points sounds like a big range, until you realize the S&P500 had been having intra-day swings of over 100 points just three weeks ago.

Perhaps the biggest thing to watch for the week is Jerome Powell.  While there is a fair amount of fundamental economic data that would typically move the markets this week, the markets are looking for assurance that the new Fed Chair is not going to deviate largely from his predecessor Yellen’s generally dovish policies.  A slow, steady, data-dependent and measured approach to increasing interest rates is what the market is looking for.  Anything to the contrary and we could see volatility spike yet again.

With the futures are indicating a push for the the S&P500 back into the mid 2750’s again, it’s likely the trading range for the week will pivot around this amount.  While it’s possible the markets could break out to the high side, the set-up appears more measured at this point.  It looks like more range-bound trading as the markets — with 2700 being the primary support level, and 2800 being the primary resistance level — until the markets are comfortable Fed policy isn’t going to radically shift.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different
types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product
(including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by
BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly
in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance
level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due
to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the
content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you
should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the
receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the
extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue
discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the
professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified
public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal
or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement
discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.