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Circuit Breakers Tripped

Well, we’re in for it now. The Kansas City Chiefs won the Super Bowl. And certainly congratulations are in order. But what does this mean for the markets?

If the Super Bowl Indicator is to be believed, we’re in for a bear market.

Of course, the accuracy of this indicator is highly questionable (having been wrong the last four years in a row now). Still, on a purely random basis… maybe?

When considering other factors in this market, it looks like last week’s negative move was ‘good’ in the sense that it moved us out of over-bought territory.

The concern (if there is one) is that we tripped some minor circuit breakers in the BigFoot system. Our confirming indicators shifted from buy to hold on the major stock indexes.

This is not in and of itself a big deal. The confirming indicators have historically been more accurate as entry signals than exit signals (at least anecdotally). Nevertheless, they flipped. So, for the time being, the system is warning against deploying new capital (at least into the indexes – the signals are actually intended to be used on a position-by-position basis).

What this circuit breaker does imply is that markets have pulled back enough we may be moving into a consolidation phase rather than an expansion phase.

The technical picture appears to confirm this. Last week’s move down was not a surprise. Still, the move was enough that it caught people’s attention. And sentiment may shift.

We forget that many market participants have not adjusted their expectations with inflation. To some, a 600-point drop in the Dow still ‘feels’ like a massive day. In reality, it’s less than a two percent decline. So, while a real move, it’s nothing like a 5-to-10 percent move that some associate such a number with.

Regardless of the fact such a data anchor is flawed, the move can damage sentiment. (This sounds worse than it may be.) The good news about a shift in sentiment is that it leaves room for markets to potentially keep climbing a wall of worry.

In reality, little has changed for this market. Despite fears of coronavirus and election uncertainty, the underpinnings of the economy continue to remain relatively intact. And the conditions that drove us to this point are relatively unchanged. Which means the fundamental elements moving this market – low rates and an accomodative Fed – continue to drive this market.

So, absent new evidence, you keep doing what the market tells you to do… until it tells you to do something else.

Right now, on a technical/quantitative basis, the market still says the bull is intact. Last week’s move was corrective in nature, but the 50-day moving average for the SPX held as support.

For the week, keep an eye on 3200 for the SPX. If this support holds the odds look good for a recovery and re-challenge of the highs of the year. If it’s breached, next week’s blog should be more interesting.

Happy February – and fingers crossed the Ground Hog was right yesterday.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Breather

If the futures are any indicator, this equity markets are in for a breather Monday. Signs point to a drop of over 1.5% for major indexes.

Before you go panicking about this pull back, be warned, this was not unexpected. Stocks have been on a major tear, trading about 1.5 standard deviations above their monthly trading average for the past several weeks. This kind of run is bound to tempt some short-term traders into profit taking.

Now that earnings season is fully underway and the Q2 projections are rolling out, it makes sense for markets to give back a little as traders trim gains.

The bigger question folks are probably asking is, ‘is this the start of something more serious?’

Too early to tell, but probably not ‘serious serious.’ Most of these pull-backs have been met with folks piling back into the markets. We need to see a sign that this is not going to be the case. However, given the low rates around the globe, one has to ask two big questions: 1) where else would I put my money? and 2) Has the Fed made any material changes in monetary policy that would lead me to change tactics right now?

The short answer to both of those questions leads to the short-term conclusion that the stock market is still the most likely option for folks seeking anything more than preservation of capital.

When looking at the support/resistance areas, the down-side target for this move is approximately 3217/3196. The lower of these figures is the 50-day moving average. The higher is about 1.5 standard deviations below the average 1-month trading range (a reversal of the last month’s trend). For context, that’s about a 2.3%-to-3% pull-back; not too ‘serious’ if that’s the extent of it.

Of course, should those support areas fail, a more ‘serious’ correction phase will need to be examined. For now, a pull-back and recovery towards or above prior highs looks likely to play out over the coming week or so.

As a side note, the coronavirus, while garnering headlines, is not yet to a point the markets are panicked about it. However, this is worth tracking.

The fact that the US Embassy has evacuated all US personnel is somewhat disconcerting. While the spread of the virus is relatively small at this time, one has to wonder what is NOT being said when we figure it’s safer to clear out an embassy than it is to just wash your hands more often. If this becomes a true pandemic, all bets are off.

We’ll keep an eye on this not-yet-situation-that-could-become-a-situation, but for now, let’s let the main thing stay the main thing.

Now, for the picture you’ve all been waiting for… markets go down, but probably back up later this week… assuming this coronavirus thing stays mainly in China… we’ll see…

SPX projections for the week of January 27th… take with the usual grain of salt
Note the 50-day moving average and support arrow – this is the area to watch. Pierce this and more down-side could be in the works

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Melt Up

I’ve always thought ‘Melt Up’ was a stupid term. Nevertheless, it appears to be applicable. By all measures my typical measures this market is overbought. The SPX is nearly two standard deviations above the monthly pricing average (and has been such for several days now). It’s well above it’s 50/100/200 day trading averages. And even more remarkable, there appears to be no end in sight.

Of course, there is an end. It may be just over the horizon. It’s just tricky to see in these conditions.

With the DJIA breaking through 29,000, there’s a general wave of optimism. A China trade deal? Optimism. And impeachment? Who cares?… The markets seem to have their eye on the ball right now.

Washington is a sideshow. Trade, while an issue, seems largely priced into expectations. So bad news is no news, and good news is worth pushing this market even higher. Every pull-back is met with buyers who want to get into the party.

Lets be clear: this won’t go on forever. And from a technical perspective, this thing is getting into rarefied air. Trying to peg numbers is a pretty exotic extrapolation.

On the high side, the SPX seems to be on a mission to break above 3300 — this week. That’s a pretty big deal considering the 2020 targets are 3573/3770 for the year.

On the low side, 3217 for the week. But there’s a much lower price point that may haunt us: 3145. This would be a much more material pull-back. But again, that number, while real, doesn’t seem to be on anyone’s radar this week.

In fact, this market seems to be looking for any reason to move higher. It would be a major concern if it weren’t for the general feelings of pessimism that still seem to be the flavor of the day. (Right about the time everyone feels pretty good about things should be the time we really start to worry)

Earnings season may begin to shift sentiment. But even that seems iffy. It seems as if this market is looking at earnings over a year out. As long as the global growth figures continue to climb, and the FED shows no signs of changing policy, the melt up has a good chance of continuing.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Santa Said Risk On (But for How Long?)

It’s been a fantastic rally for stocks over the past couple months as Santa Claus was coming to town. Now is where things get interesting.

As discussed, last week was really the last full ‘trading’ week of the year. With the Christmas and New Year’s Holidays happening mid-week you can count on lower trading volume for the rest of the year. And more than likely, the participation will be light (don’t want to mess up those bonuses for portfolio managers).

To top it off, news on the ‘trade war’ is positive this morning as China says they’ll reduce or eliminate tariffs on a number of goods in the new year in anticipation of an inked trade deal in the near future.

This news has been greeted with optimism in the futures markets as the major indexes appear poised to push to even higher all-time highs. What a (calendar) year for the stock markets! (I’m sure we’ll get a pile of statistics to chew on in the coming days and weeks – best market since 2013, etc etc).

But before you pop the cork and celebrate, a word of foreshadowing: on the technical front, this market is way over-bought (at least by metrics we typically track). And on top of that, the multiple on earnings has crept up pretty high.

Fortunately, word on the street is still pretty skeptical. But we’re seeing Wall Street pundits raising estimates and there is a lot of chatter from the retail investor about how great things are (even if they’re still nervous about the economy going into an election year).

It’s precisely these times one should be careful about getting sucked into emotional euphoria land.

Warren Buffet famously said you should be fearful when people are greedy, and greedy when people are fearful.

Well, this is a tricky spot. The major indexes have had huge moves in 2019. The temptation to chase performance and pile into big winners is like a Siren’s call for many. And the technical set-up is concerning as we’ve seen this market not only gap higher late last week, but it’s poised to do so again at today’s open.

We’re at two standard deviations above the 21-day trading average for the SPX. Based on the futures markets, we’ll go even higher that that this morning.

It’s no guarantee that the markets pull-back from here just because we’re over-bought… or in a shortened trading week… or because we’ve had likely two price-gaps higher in the last two trading days… or because we’ve had huge calendar-year profits for the year… or because traders want to start positioning for Q1-2020… or a host of other reasons…

But you get the idea… markets have a lot of reasons they could pull-back from here. If they don’t, it may be time to start revisiting Warren Buffet’s old saying again. Because if there’s no fear in this market, maybe there should be.

Then again, for you BigFoot users, this is exactly why we have a process instead of just using our gut. Sure, there are no guarantees in the world. But having a systematic approach to analysis and following a set of rules and rationales leads to more consistent behavior. That means fewer variables, and higher statistical predictability. Or, said another way, it helps reduce the potential for human errors by quarantining some of the emotions that often lead to poor decisions. So tell a friend – or if you’ve stumbled upon this blog for some other reason, give us a ping. We’d love to walk you through the system and show you how to put the power or both artificial intelligence and neural networking to work in your investment process.

Looking pretty over-bought here
There may be further to go, but the air is getting pretty thin up here

As a head’s up, next week’s blog will be pretty minimal. As is the norm for this time of year, I will spend some time pulling together data and doing annual projections for 2020. I will probably do a brief year-in-review snapshot as well. It’s pretty easy though – markets exceeded my expectations because earnings exceeded expectations. It wasn’t a major miss (I had a high for the year at 23% return – we’re currently around 27% on the SPX), but I was surprised to the up-side. Now that I think about it though, should I even say this? Don’t want to jinx things in the last few trading days of the year…

Thanks for continuing the read these musings. I hope you have a wonderful holiday seasons, a Merry Christmas from my household, and a Happy New Year as we step into 2020. May you as blessed as I have been…

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Home Stretch

This is the last full trading week of 2019. It may also be the last big push of the year for the markets to move higher.

If futures markets are any indication, there should be a pop Monday morning. This may create additional momentum for the week, pushing the SPX up over 3200.

Given the unusual holiday schedule (with both Christmas and New Year’s on Wednesday), this may very well be the high-water mark for the year. Still, as far as the calendar YTD performance goes, it’s been a heck of a year already.

There really is no ‘resistance’ on the upside right now. With markets essentially at all-time highs, the question is just how high can things go?

And things may go higher than we thought. With trade war talk softening, some of the pricing expectations may be off. IF — and it’s still if at this point — the trade war is going to soften, earnings expectations could benefit. That could mean this bull has room to run. 2020 may be an interesting year…

As far as support goes, around 3130 for the SPX. If this level is breached there may be some additional downside. Odds are portfolio managers are trying to sew up their bonuses for the year, so it doesn’t seem terribly likely we’ll have the bottom fall out of the market.

So while there is never a ‘known’ future for the markets, the set-up looks pretty good. It would take a major shift in market expectations to really throw a wrench in this thing. Folks seem to be asking how much higher this market goes rather when will the next drop happen. So grab some eggnog and cross your fingers – Santa Claus is coming to town 🙂

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Sleigh Bells

If you ask the markets, Santa Clause is still on the way, and this rally is still in play.

The technical trends are pretty straight-forward: economic data remains in-line with expectations, and Fed policy is unchanged. It’s a recipe for more of the same. And ‘the same’ happens to be a pretty low-volatility climb higher for the major indexes.

While this run has been exceeded initial expectations, the behavior of things looks like this week may continue higher.

Mechanically, we could see the top of 2019 this week. This is because both Christmas and New Year’s fall on Wednesdays. That means this is really the last ‘regular’ trading week of the year. After that, holidays monkey with stuff.

So enjoy for now. Q1-2020 is bringing not only new earnings, but new speculation as we head into an election year during the greatest bull market in a generation.

For the week, look for support around 3117, with resistance around 3179… if there is any resistance. The only reason the market hasn’t pushed higher is because it’s already at all-time highs.

C’mon Santa Claus Rally!

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Beware of Pullbacks

After setting a series of all-time highs it equity markets may be ripe for a trader’s pull-back. This is typical any time there’s been a material run up in the markets.

While the climb has been orderly, the SPX is showing over-bought characteristics at these levels. Based on our numbers, a pull-back toward the 3035-3050 level would be typical after this kind of move.

This pull-back would also be in line with the bigger overall projection for 2019. In fact, based on projections from nearly a year ago (which is so long ago in market time as to be barely relevant anymore), the SPX has exceeded expectations for 2019.

For the week, the market may yet trend higher. In fact, this may be a good week for the markets as it’s the last full week before the holiday season starts to rev up. But things may start to get dicey once we get into the short Thanksgiving week.

Trying to predict how much higher an all-time high trend goes before a pull-back — especially in light of the circus that is Washington these days — is pretty tough. For now, since there really isn’t any ‘resistance’ in this market, we’ll just have to see how over-bought things can get.

“It’s Christmas Theo. It’s the time of miracles,” Hans Gruber, Nakatomi Plaza, 30th Floor

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

How High from Here?

Last week managed to finish at all-time highs for the SPX. The question now is how high can we go?

While there is no pre-defined limit, our original 2019 projections had 3100 as a likely target. Given current momentum, the SPX may exceed this level either this week or next.

The question will then shift to whether or not we can hang on from here.

If history were to repeat itself, we’ll likely see a bit of a pull-back coming once this initial target is met. The fourth quarter can be tricky though, as holiday rallies are tough to anticipate.

Given the shift away from a more traditional “Black Friday” sales event, it’s possible the big move for this market is happening right now. It’s typical for holiday schedules and window dressing to make for a dicey December.

2019 has been a remarkable calendar year in terms of market performance. Of course, it was a sand-bagged number as the fourth quarter of 2018 really tanked. The technical set-up does not have a major meltdown manifesting in the data yet though. So we may finish with a pretty strong calendar year from here.

Below is a chart of the 2019 projection. Note that 3110 was at the top of the expected range. This does not mean the markets cannot get into rally mode and push past this. It only means the markets would be ahead of expectations – and perhaps a bit over-bought at that point.

The pull-back targets are of bigger concern for most professional investors. How far back is an expected pull-back? Key levels from here would be: 3024/3014/3000/2974/2944.

To put these numbers in context, it’s about a four-percent pull-back. That’s not exactly huge given the moves this year. (Although it would definitely take some of the fun out of things.)

The good news is the end-of-year low target is still about 3010. That’s pretty solid support for this trend.

We’ll see if the Santa rally pushes us to even higher all-time highs. For this week, look for those numbers to push higher.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Trade Winds Improving

Last week markets got a pop on ‘less bad’ trade news as China indicated a partial trade agreement may be on the table. This could mean additional planned tariffs would be suspended.

Markets viewed this as a positive and finished last week with a strong push higher.

While the news is good, the technical set-up for this week may have a quick down-draft to fill in a price gap for the SPX. There is technical support around 2930 or so — right at the 100-day moving average (the 50-dma is only 5 points higher).

Interestingly enough, the market is neither over-bought nor over-sold. It’s pretty much right in the middle of its 21-day trading range. So positive news from here could lead to a push higher (especially if the small price gap created last Friday gets filled quickly this week).

This is the first technical sign that the markets could be setting up for a break-out to the up side in a while. There is still a chance the sideways pattern could simply persist, but the price reversal last week was a good sign the 2900 is significant support for the SPX.

For this week, look for a quick dip down, followed by a potential surge to the up-side. Breaching 3000 on the SPX is possible this week, although it is unlikely the all-time highs will be reached. It would take a more definitive deal with China to spark that kind of move.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.

Estimated range of SPX for week of 9/3/19

Uncertainly

A perfect storm of uncertainty seems to be brewing for this week. But that uncertainty does not seem to be the kind that will significantly derail this market — at least not this week. It just adds to the drama.

The set-up for the SPX has about a 100-point range for the week. That’s pretty big – but the test is near the top of the range.

The range is built around the small head-and-shoulders pattern that has been forming over the past several weeks. The left shoulder peaked at 2954. So the movement of the SPX will be interesting here as we approach the potential right shoulder. Do we break up or down from here? (hint: the trend appears to be up)

With Hurricane Dorian slated to hit the East Coast this week, this test could be tricky. While the storm does not change the geopolitical and economic mix much, it will be a meaningful distraction to productivity in an already-shortened ‘back-to-routine’ week (does that even make sense?).

Typically activity picks up in September as kids across the country are back to school. There is no significant holiday between now and Thanksgiving in November. And the shortened work-week post-Labor-Day-holiday often suffers what many shortened weeks do – heightened volatility as the market crams a lost day into 4 (and yes, this is mostly anecdotal, but it certainly ‘seems’ this way).

With Dorian in the mix, the question is also whether or not there will be a measurable impact to the economy in the form of a slowdown in productivity or massive damage that requires repairs.

Bottom line, the international picture has not presented any significant revelation the market is trying to digest. So the news cycle will likely follow Dorian’s impact for this week, with some side discussion about Brexit and interest rates. Throw in some ‘I hate the other team’ political banter, and the week isn’t really that out of the ordinary.

The technical picture, strangely enough, appears to have volatility narrowing compared with prior weeks. The question is more about whether or not the markets find support at these levels and grind higher, or if we stay in a sideways pattern with volatility for a while.

If the story remains unchanged, the support area for the SPX is about 2854, with consolidation happening in the 2900-2950ish range. Resistance isn’t really a factor here – it’s simply all-time-highs. And if those are taken out, that’s a good sign. The concern comes if the market closes below 2825. A breach of this level could mean more significant downside to follow.

For this week, just hang on. There may be a few whip-saws, but the data indicating a more significant decline hasn’t shown itself yet. We’ll see how many headlines traders try to play off of though.

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE INFORMATION

Please remember that past performance may not be indicative of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product (including the investments and/or investment strategies recommended or undertaken by BigFoot), or any non-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in this blog will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the content may no longer be reflective of current opinions or positions. Moreover, you should not assume that any discussion or information contained in this blog serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from BigFoot. To the extent that a reader has any questions regarding the applicability of any specific issue discussed above to his/her individual situation, he/she is encouraged to consult with the professional advisor of his/her choosing. BigFoot is neither a law firm nor a certified public accounting firm and no portion of the blog content should be construed as legal or accounting advice. A copy of the BigFoot’s current written disclosure statement discussing our advisory services and fees is available for review upon request.